Snowflakes fell on parts of the Washington region Tuesday, and meteorological winter looms with the start of December this week.
The climate pattern associated with El Niño is starting to fuel storms across the South — something that is likely to continue through the winter. If that storminess combines with enough cold enough air, the D.C. area could be looking at its snowiest season in at least five winters. That is what our winter outlook, released this month, predicts.
In addition to our own outlook, we’ve crowdsourced nearly 1,300 forecasts from Capital Weather Gang readers and contributors as well as broadcast meteorologists and forecasters from private companies. The overwhelming majority predict above-average snowfall.
Is this snowy consensus a case of winter-loving optimism or just the cold, hard facts? Only time and proper snow measurements will tell.
Advertisement
Below, find a summary of all of the forecasts.
Forecasts from TV meteorologists
Meteorologists from the four major local television affiliates are generally forecasting above-average snowfall. Predicted totals range from 12 to 30 inches, in comparison with the 1991-2020 average of 13.7 inches:
Doug Kammerer at NBC4 has the snowiest forecast; among area forecasters last year, he called for the least amount of snow and was correct.
If the high end of these forecasts is right, it means we will have experienced our snowiest winter since 2013-2014, when 32 inches fell.
Forecasters from private companies
Five long-range-forecasting specialists from private companies also shared their predictions with us several weeks ago. Like the TV meteorologists, they generally favor above-average snowfall:
- Judah Cohen, Verisk AER: 13.3 inches
- Todd Crawford, Atmospheric G2: 16 inches
- Paul Dorian, Arcfield Weather: 20 to 30 inches
- Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather: 14 to 18 inches
- Matt Rogers, Commodity Weather Group: 15 inches
The winter forecasts from these experts gently lean toward above-average temperatures, but they caution about the risk of “weather whiplash” or big swings between mild and cold weather.
Advertisement
Several of these meteorologists stress that while El Niño stacks the deck for increased snowfall, other weather and climate features will have important influences.
Forecasts from the Capital Weather Gang and its readers
Our winter outlook calls for above-average snowfall, with 16 to 22 inches around the District and up to several feet toward the mountains.
We polled our readers for their own predictions for winter snowfall at Reagan National Airport and, perhaps because of the potential for a snowy winter, had the greatest participation yet, with 1,265 submissions.
The average of these submissions is 18.9 inches, or about 5 inches above the 1991-2020 average of 13.7 inches. The median prediction is 17.9 inches.
Among various snowfall ranges, 12 to 18 inches is most popular, with 356 predictions. More than 100 people forecast 17 to 18 inches — the most popular one-inch range.
Advertisement
Five people forecast no snow, and three predict 0.1 inches — which would match the least-snowy winters on record in Washington, in 1997-1998 and 1972-1973. Last winter wasn’t far off, when only 0.4 inches fell.
Five people are forecasting a historic winter, with at least 56.2 inches of snow, exceeding the record winter of 2009-2010, when 56.1 inches fell.
Among journalists and contributors who at least occasionally write for the Capital Weather Gang, most are also predicting above-normal snowfall. The average of those 22 contributors is 16.1 inches, with a range of 6.2 to 28 inches. Justin Grieser, the contributor with the most accurate forecast last year, predicts 16.5 inches.
With winter on our doorstep and all the forecasts in, may the snow be with you — unless, of course, you’re not into that.
ncG1vNJzZmivp6x7uK3SoaCnn6Sku7G70q1lnKedZMSmrdOhnKtnYmV%2FdHuQamZrcV%2BZsG6%2FzaiuZp6fp7KkrdKtqmaboqTEpb%2FOrqmcnV2YxKh7